I am really enjoying watching the predicament that NBC finds itself wallowing in.  It’s one thing to deal with two big-time personalities like Leno and Conan behind the scenes - but to do it while still giving them access to rip NBC every night on their programs makes this true reality TV.

I tune in each night to their monologues - and, of course, you have to catch Letterman’s comments too - for the pure sport of watching them bash NBC.   It is much better than “Survivor” or any other so-called reality program.  This is real-life network stupidity playing out in front of us each night.

I also smile while watching the so-called media experts on all the network newscasts, morning programs, and cable news channels as they expound on the battle.  Many of them seem to portray Leno as a Big Foot stomping on poor Conan’s lifelong dream of hosting The Tonight Show.   They need to get their facts straight.

Fact One:  NBC made a huge mistake by living up to a promise to O’Brien that he would inherit The Tonight Show in 2009 or they would have to pay him $40 million.  Leno is still a young man - and he kept the program on top (except for a slight stumble in the beginning) for over a decade.  By forcing Leno out to avoid paying the $40 million to Conan,  NBC cost themselves over $200 million in lost revenue because Conan’s ratings are much smaller than when Leno left (was forced out of) the program.

Fact Two:  While I may not be a programming expert, I said from the beginning that Conan would not play in The Tonight Show slot because he had a narrow following in late night.  Yes, he gained some younger demos but Conan also drove away the loyal audience from when Leno held forth. 

Fact Three:  Research showed, and I also espoused in various interviews that Leno would bring many of his loyal Tonight Show audience with him - but that is also a niche audience.  It is strong for late night - but paltry when compared to primetime hit shows.  That is exactly what happened.

Fact Four:  While Leno promised a fun new show that would help drive viewers into local late newscasts - his program was a disaster.  I am a Leno fan but found it unwatchable on many nights.  The contributors were awful, many of the bits were worse (especially the driving track) and Leno was clearly uncomfortable sitting in a chair - without being behind a desk - doing interviews.  As one person said to me - it looks like a local cable-access program.

Fact Five:  Leno’s anemic ratings leading into local affiliates - and O&O’s - late newscasts caused the local ratings to come crashing down too.   In Tampa, for instance, despite lowly NBC primetime programming, WFLA was #1 in late news for 18 weeks straight.  That ended when Leno debuted.  Leno’s numbers were so bad that he was 3rd or many times 4th in most every metered market.

Fact Six: No one is talking about the fact that Leno’s tsunami that killed NBC station’s late newscast numbers also carried over to their morning newscasts.   Conan is a big culprit in this too.  Because the lead-in was a disaster, and the local news numbers plunged, and Conan had a small niche audience - the affiliates and O&O’s morning newscasts also took a big hit.  For the first time for many stations, NBC wasn’t the channel viewers were on when they switched off their remote for the night - so it wasn’t on their station for the morning newscast the next day.

And while I am bashing NBC, it seems crazy that they would offer Leno a half-hour after the late newscasts and try to keep Conan as host of  The Tonight Show after that.   Wake up NBC suits!   Stop the financial and ratings bleeding - restore Leno to The Tonight Show right after the local newscasts and let Conan go somewhere else. 

Conan is a little like the longtime anchor you have doing your local news who is not drawing ratings - but you’re afraid to let him/her go because they may go across the street.  Who cares?  If they can’t draw viewers on your station why would they draw them somewhere else.  Pay Conan off, restore Leno to Tonight and move on.  The monetary hit in doing that is far less than making another stupid decision to try and appease O’Brien.

Jim

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 13th, 2010 at 11:09 am and is filed under Willi. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.